Scientists say one-time lockdown will not bring pandemic under control.

By Hannah Devlin: “Papers released by the government’s scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) in March suggested that the UK would need to alternate between periods of more and less strict physical distancing measures for a year to have a plausible chance of keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity.

The prospect of intermittent distancing raises difficult questions about what guidance will be given to high-risk groups, including over-70s and those with compromised immune systems.

It may be possible to relax distancing measures periodically while maintaining cases within a volume that health services can cope with, but the grave health risks of infection to some people will remain the same until a vaccine or highly effective treatments are available.

New treatments, a vaccine, or increasing critical care capacity could alleviate the need for stringent physical distancing, according to the paper in Science. “But in the absence of these, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022,” the authors conclude.”

Source: Guardian News & Media Ltd.